CUP YTD
43-29 +17.59 (Match-ups)
17-20 +03.49 (Props/FP)
04-11 - 04.46 (RaceWinners)
Total: +16.62 units
One of those days where I like about everything I see, but trying to be careful because these road course races usually don't pan out the way they are suppose to. Drivers dumping other drivers, fuel mileage stategy, pit road miscues, transmission issues etc.....
MATCH-UPS
2.50 units Clint Bowyer (+130) over Jamie McMurray (@5dimes)
Books must have based this line solely on qualifying and practice. McMurray has not finished higher than 13th here since 2004, has struggled mightily this entire season so these guys will have to prove to me they can sustain a Top 10 finish.
On the other hand, Bowyer no slouch at Infineon finishing 8th and 4th twice last 4 starts (had a Top 10 last year but was caught up in a mess not of his doing).
1.50 units Juan Montoya (-110) over Kyle Busch (@5dimes)
JPM has a win and a 5.75 avg. in 4 starts here (all Top 10's). Looks formidable again and really needs a win, right now he is out of the chase (15th in points) but a win may put in him the wildcard spot.
1.50 units Carl Edwards (-125) over Robby Gordon (@5dimes)
Have no faith in Gordon's equipment and also looks to be down on speed, normally near the top of the charts he didn't crack the Top 20 in practice or quals.
Edwards nothing great in practice either but has better equipment and not a bad roadie in his own right
1.50 Kevin Harvick (+125) over Kurt Busch (@5dimes)
Harvick is feast or famine on the road courses but like the value in this line. Kurt not exactly Mr. Consistent on courses either
1.50 units Brian Vickers (+115) over Brad Keselowski (@5dimes)
Gut play of the week
PROPS/FP
2.00 units Marcos Ambrose (-115) under 4.5 (@5dimes)
Barring any funny business (big if) this should hit
2.00 units Juan Montoya (+105) under 9.5 (@5dimes)
Bit of a surprise to see this play and the line that goes with it. JPM worst finish at Infineon is 10th
RACE WINNER
Not going with the favorite Ambrose, not much value @+330 or so, besides the odds on favorite never seems to pull it off here
0.50 unit Jeff Gordon (+1200) @5dimes
I know there is a chance of retaliation but if he stays clean he is Top 5 or better
0.50 unit Juan Montoya (+1200) @sportsbook
0.33 unit Kevin Harvick (+1600) @thegreek
0.25 unit Carl Edwards (+2800) @thegreek
0.25 unit Clint Bowyer (+3000) @sportsbook
Good luck!
43-29 +17.59 (Match-ups)
17-20 +03.49 (Props/FP)
04-11 - 04.46 (RaceWinners)
Total: +16.62 units
One of those days where I like about everything I see, but trying to be careful because these road course races usually don't pan out the way they are suppose to. Drivers dumping other drivers, fuel mileage stategy, pit road miscues, transmission issues etc.....
MATCH-UPS
2.50 units Clint Bowyer (+130) over Jamie McMurray (@5dimes)
Books must have based this line solely on qualifying and practice. McMurray has not finished higher than 13th here since 2004, has struggled mightily this entire season so these guys will have to prove to me they can sustain a Top 10 finish.
On the other hand, Bowyer no slouch at Infineon finishing 8th and 4th twice last 4 starts (had a Top 10 last year but was caught up in a mess not of his doing).
1.50 units Juan Montoya (-110) over Kyle Busch (@5dimes)
JPM has a win and a 5.75 avg. in 4 starts here (all Top 10's). Looks formidable again and really needs a win, right now he is out of the chase (15th in points) but a win may put in him the wildcard spot.
1.50 units Carl Edwards (-125) over Robby Gordon (@5dimes)
Have no faith in Gordon's equipment and also looks to be down on speed, normally near the top of the charts he didn't crack the Top 20 in practice or quals.
Edwards nothing great in practice either but has better equipment and not a bad roadie in his own right
1.50 Kevin Harvick (+125) over Kurt Busch (@5dimes)
Harvick is feast or famine on the road courses but like the value in this line. Kurt not exactly Mr. Consistent on courses either
1.50 units Brian Vickers (+115) over Brad Keselowski (@5dimes)
Gut play of the week
PROPS/FP
2.00 units Marcos Ambrose (-115) under 4.5 (@5dimes)
Barring any funny business (big if) this should hit
2.00 units Juan Montoya (+105) under 9.5 (@5dimes)
Bit of a surprise to see this play and the line that goes with it. JPM worst finish at Infineon is 10th
RACE WINNER
Not going with the favorite Ambrose, not much value @+330 or so, besides the odds on favorite never seems to pull it off here
0.50 unit Jeff Gordon (+1200) @5dimes
I know there is a chance of retaliation but if he stays clean he is Top 5 or better
0.50 unit Juan Montoya (+1200) @sportsbook
0.33 unit Kevin Harvick (+1600) @thegreek
0.25 unit Carl Edwards (+2800) @thegreek
0.25 unit Clint Bowyer (+3000) @sportsbook
Good luck!
